Live prediction market odds for Heat vs. Kings. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-20
This market resolved on 2026-01-20. Miami Heat was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 80%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Miami HeatWINNER | 99% | 61% |
Sacramento | 1% | 39% |
Heat vs. Kings was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Miami Heat led the market at 80% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Sacramento at 20%.
Miami Heat held the lead at 80% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Miami Heat, Sacramento at 20% were the next closest contenders. The 38.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Miami Heat: 99¢ on Kalshi, 61¢ on Polymarket. Sacramento: 1¢ on Kalshi, 39¢ on Polymarket. The 38.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 80¢ meant the market estimated a 80% chance that Miami Heat would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 80¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 25% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Miami Heat
80.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Sacramento wins the Miami at Sacramento professional basketball game originally scheduled for Jan 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
