Live prediction market odds for Thunder vs. Warriors. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-12-02
This market resolved on 2025-12-02. Oklahoma City was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 92%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Oklahoma CityWINNER | 99% | 85% |
Oklahoma CityWINNER | 99% | 83% |
Golden State Warriors | 1% | 18% |
Golden State Warriors | 1% | 16% |
Thunder vs. Warriors was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Oklahoma City led the market at 92% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Oklahoma City at 91%, Golden State Warriors at 9%, Golden State Warriors at 8%.
Oklahoma City held the lead at 92% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Oklahoma City, Oklahoma City at 91% and Golden State Warriors at 9% and Golden State Warriors at 8% were the next closest contenders. The 16.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Oklahoma City: 99¢ on Kalshi, 85¢ on Polymarket. Oklahoma City: 99¢ on Kalshi, 83¢ on Polymarket. Golden State Warriors: 1¢ on Kalshi, 18¢ on Polymarket. Golden State Warriors: 1¢ on Kalshi, 16¢ on Polymarket. The 16.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 92¢ meant the market estimated a 92% chance that Oklahoma City would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 92¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 9% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Oklahoma City
91.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Golden State wins the Oklahoma City vs Golden State professional basketball game originally scheduled for Dec 2, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
