Live prediction market odds for Thunder vs. Heat. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-17
This market resolved on 2026-01-17. Miami Heat was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 60%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Miami HeatWINNER | 99% | 21% |
Oklahoma City | 1% | 80% |
Thunder vs. Heat was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Miami Heat led the market at 60% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Oklahoma City at 40%.
Miami Heat held the lead at 60% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Miami Heat, Oklahoma City at 40% were the next closest contenders. The 78.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Miami Heat: 99¢ on Kalshi, 21¢ on Polymarket. Oklahoma City: 1¢ on Kalshi, 80¢ on Polymarket. The 78.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 60¢ meant the market estimated a 60% chance that Miami Heat would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 60¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 67% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Miami Heat
59.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Miami wins the Oklahoma City at Miami professional basketball game originally scheduled for Jan 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
