About This Market
Sharenba-orl-mia-2026-03-14 : Sports event: Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat - nba
Live prediction market odds for Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and ProphetX.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / ProphetX
Resolved 2026-03-14
This market resolved on 2026-03-14. Orlando was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.
nba-orl-mia-2026-03-14 : Sports event: Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat - nba
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() |
|---|---|---|---|
OrlandoWINNER | 99% | 38% | 98% |
Miami Heat | 1% | 63% | 13% |
Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX). Orlando led the market at 78% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Miami Heat at 25%.
Orlando held the lead at 78% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Orlando, Miami Heat at 25% were the next closest contenders. The 61.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX: Orlando: 99¢ on Kalshi, 38¢ on Polymarket, 98¢ on ProphetX. Miami Heat: 1¢ on Kalshi, 63¢ on Polymarket, 13¢ on ProphetX. The 61.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 78¢ meant the market estimated a 78% chance that Orlando would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 78¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 28% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Orlando
78.2% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Miami wins the Orlando at Miami professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.