Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the NE-02 Democratic nominee?

Accepted Answer

Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and endorsements. Polling data and voter sentiment also play critical roles in shaping market predictions.

Question 2

How does the NE-02 district impact the Democratic nominee's chances?

Accepted Answer

NE-02 is a competitive district that can swing either way in elections. Winning this nomination is vital for the Democratic Party to maintain or gain influence in the region.

Question 3

When will the NE-02 Democratic nominee be decided?

Accepted Answer

The nominee will be determined in the primary elections scheduled for May 12, 2026. This date is pivotal as it sets the stage for the general election later that year.

Question 4

What is "NE-02 Democratic nominee?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

NE-02 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). John Cavanaugh leads at 74% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Denise Powell at 19%, Mark Johnston at 7%, Evangelos Argyrakis at 4%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "NE-02 Democratic nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

John Cavanaugh currently leads at 74% implied probability. Behind John Cavanaugh, Denise Powell at 19% and Mark Johnston at 7% and Evangelos Argyrakis at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 3.8% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "NE-02 Democratic nominee?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: John Cavanaugh: 73¢ on Kalshi, 74¢ on Polymarket. Denise Powell: 19¢ on Kalshi, 19¢ on Polymarket. Mark Johnston: 5¢ on Kalshi, 8¢ on Polymarket. Evangelos Argyrakis: 2¢ on Kalshi, 6¢ on Polymarket. The 3.8% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that John Cavanaugh is at 74%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 74¢ means the market estimates a 74% probability that John Cavanaugh will be the outcome. Buying one share at 74¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 35% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	75.0%	72¢	78¢	22¢	28¢
Polymarket	74.0%	68¢	80¢	20¢	32¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	18.5%	15¢	22¢	78¢	85¢
Polymarket	19.0%	10¢	28¢	72¢	90¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	3.5%	0¢	7¢	93¢	100¢
Polymarket	8.5%	4¢	13¢	87¢	97¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	3.0%	0¢	6¢	94¢	100¢
Polymarket	5.5%	0¢	11¢	89¢	100¢

NE-02 Democratic nominee?

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