Live prediction market odds for NE-02 Republican nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-12
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the NE-02 Republican nominee race ahead of the 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence party dynamics and strategies in a key battleground state.
Brinker Harding leads NE-02 Republican nominee at 93.5% implied probability, followed by Dan Frei at 5.8%. A 3.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are affected by candidate endorsements, fundraising capabilities, and polling data. Additionally, shifts in voter sentiment and national political trends can significantly impact predictions.
NE-02 is considered a competitive district that can sway election outcomes. Winning this seat could bolster the Republican majority in Congress and shape legislative priorities.
The nominee will be decided during the primary elections scheduled for May 12, 2026. This date is crucial for candidates to secure their position ahead of the general election.
NE-02 Republican nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Brinker Harding leads at 94% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Dan Frei at 6%.
Brinker Harding currently leads at 94% implied probability. Behind Brinker Harding, Dan Frei at 6% are the next closest contenders. A 3.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Brinker Harding
93.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Brinker Harding wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NE-2 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
