Live prediction market odds for New Mexico Governor Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the New Mexico Governor Election Winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This election is pivotal as it could influence state policies and party dynamics in a key battleground state.
Democrat leads the “New Mexico Governor Election Winner” event at 89.8% implied probability, followed by Republican at 10.8%. A 4.6% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The New Mexico Governor Election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle in the United States.
Factors such as voter turnout, campaign strategies, and key issues like the economy and public safety will play a crucial role. Additionally, national political trends may also impact local voter sentiment.
The election is significant as it can shift the balance of power in state governance. Outcomes could affect legislation on critical issues and influence future elections in the region.
New Mexico Governor Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democrat leads at 90% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican at 11%.
Democrat currently leads at 90% implied probability. Behind Democrat, Republican at 11% are the next closest contenders. The 4.6% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democrat
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of New Mexico pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
89.8% avg
