Live prediction market odds for New Zealand vs South Africa. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-21
This market resolved on 2026-02-21. South Africa was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 75%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
South AfricaWINNER | 99% | 50% |
New Zealand | 1% | 50% |
New Zealand vs South Africa was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). South Africa led the market at 75% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include New Zealand at 26%.
South Africa held the lead at 75% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind South Africa, New Zealand at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: South Africa: 99¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. New Zealand: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 75¢ meant the market estimated a 75% chance that South Africa would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 75¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 33% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf New Zealand is the winner of the New Zealand vs South Africa professional Men's T20 World Cup Cricket match originally scheduled for Feb 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
South Africa
74.5% avg
