What are the current odds for "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun: Péter Magyar: 99¢ on Kalshi, 99¢ on Polymarket. Viktor Orbán: 0¢ on Kalshi, 40¢ on Polymarket. The 39.8% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Péter Magyar is at 99%?

A price of 99¢ means the market estimates a 99% probability that Péter Magyar will be the outcome. Buying one share at 99¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 1% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Next Prime Minister of Hungary | Live Odds Comparison

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About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the next Prime Minister of Hungary, with the election set for May 2026. This event is pivotal as it could influence Hungary's domestic policies and its relationship with the European Union, especially amid ongoing debates about governance and economic strategies.

Péter Magyar leads the “Next Prime Minister of Hungary” event at 98.9% implied probability, followed by Viktor Orbán at 13.5%. A 39.8% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

No price history available

Live Markets

3 platforms

Péter Magyar

99% Avg

100¢

99¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	99.5%	99¢	100¢	1¢	1¢
Polymarket	99.0%	99¢	99¢	1¢	1¢
Predict.fun	99.0%	99¢	99¢	1¢	1¢

Viktor OrbánARB

17% Avg

0¢

60¢

1¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.0%	0¢	0¢	100¢	100¢
Polymarket	50.0%	40¢	60¢	40¢	60¢
Predict.fun	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Péter Magyar

Péter Magyar is the President of the Tisza Party and a Member of the European Parliament for Hungary. He previously served as Vice-President of the Tisza Party and held various positions within Hungary's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Prime Minister's Office. He is a leading candidate in Hungary's upcoming parliamentary elections, challenging Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule.

About Viktor Orbán

Viktor Orbán is the current Prime Minister of Hungary, serving since 2010. He previously held the position from 1998 to 2002 and has been the leader of the Fidesz party since 2003. His extensive tenure and influence in Hungarian politics make him a central figure in discussions about the country's future leadership.

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will attend the State of the Union?LOSTPre-event: 0%

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence the outcome of the Hungarian Prime Minister election?

Key factors include party popularity, economic performance, and public sentiment on social issues. Additionally, international relations and EU policies may sway voter opinions.

When is the election for the next Prime Minister of Hungary?

The election is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This timing is crucial as it follows a period of significant political developments in the country.

How do prediction markets work for political events like this?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their predictions of future events. Prices fluctuate based on collective sentiment and information, reflecting the perceived likelihood of various outcomes.

What is "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" and why does it matter?

Next Prime Minister of Hungary is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun). Péter Magyar leads at 99% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Viktor Orbán at 20%.

What is moving the odds on "Next Prime Minister of Hungary"?

Péter Magyar currently leads at 99% implied probability. Behind Péter Magyar, Viktor Orbán at 20% are the next closest contenders. The 39.8% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Outcome

Amount

Max Price (opt)?

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi

BBC Bloomberg News Financial Times parliament or legislature of <country>Reuters the Associated Press The Guardian The New York Times The Washington Post

Polymarket

UMA Optimistic Oracle

Market Rulebook: Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Viktor Orbán becomes Prime Minister of Hungary as a result of government formation following the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election and meets all constitutional requirements before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

For the purposes of this contract, **these rules will satisfy the payout criterion:** - The person must be formally appointed, sworn in, or invested according to the country's constitutional procedures and command the confidence of the parliament/legislature through an investiture vote, formal approval, or constitutional convention. - They must exercise the full powers of the office, not serve in a caretaker or acting capacity from the previous government. - The appointment must stem from the government formation process following the specified election. Serving as caretaker pending government formation, being designated to form a government but not yet invested, leading the party with most seats without forming government, being named as designate without completing constitutional requirements, or holding the position temporarily during coalition negotiations **do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion**. Special situations: - If no government forms by the deadline, all markets resolve to No except "No one" if that option exists. - If new elections are called before government formation, markets resolve immediately. - For rotating arrangements, the first person to meet all criteria resolves to Yes. - If the person leading a party dies before taking office, their market resolves to last fair price and their successor may resolve to Yes. - Markets for persons not explicitly listed resolve to "Other" if that option exists.

Resolution Oracles

BBC Bloomberg News Financial Times parliament or legislature of <country>Reuters the Associated Press The Guardian The New York Times The Washington Post

Polymarket

Primary Rule

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Predict.fun

Primary Rule

{'description': 'Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nCreated At: 2026-03-02T13:02:07.602968828Z'}

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Péter Magyar

About Viktor Orbán

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Historical Track Record

Who will attend the State of the Union?