Live prediction market odds for Next Prime Minister of Hungary. Compare prices across Kalshi and Predict.fun.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Predict.fun
Resolved 2026-05-01
This market resolved on 2026-05-01. Péter Magyar was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the next Prime Minister of Hungary, with the election set for May 2026. This event is pivotal as it could influence Hungary's domestic policies and its relationship with the European Union, especially amid ongoing debates about governance and economic strategies.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Péter MagyarWINNER | 100% | 99% |
Viktor Orbán | 0% | 0% |
Prediction Market Track Record
Key factors include party popularity, economic performance, and public sentiment on social issues. Additionally, international relations and EU policies may sway voter opinions.
The election is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This timing is crucial as it follows a period of significant political developments in the country.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their predictions of future events. Prices fluctuate based on collective sentiment and information, reflecting the perceived likelihood of various outcomes.
Next Prime Minister of Hungary was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Predict.fun). Péter Magyar led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Viktor Orbán at 0%.
Péter Magyar held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Péter Magyar, Viktor Orbán at 0% were the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.7% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf Viktor Orbán becomes Prime Minister of Hungary as a result of government formation following the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election and meets all constitutional requirements before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this contract, **these rules will satisfy the payout criterion:** - The person must be formally appointed, sworn in, or invested according to the country's constitutional procedures and command the confidence of the parliament/legislature through an investiture vote, formal approval, or constitutional convention. - They must exercise the full powers of the office, not serve in a caretaker or acting capacity from the previous government. - The appointment must stem from the government formation process following the specified election. Serving as caretaker pending government formation, being designated to form a government but not yet invested, leading the party with most seats without forming government, being named as designate without completing constitutional requirements, or holding the position temporarily during coalition negotiations **do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion**. Special situations: - If no government forms by the deadline, all markets resolve to No except "No one" if that option exists. - If new elections are called before government formation, markets resolve immediately. - For rotating arrangements, the first person to meet all criteria resolves to Yes. - If the person leading a party dies before taking office, their market resolves to last fair price and their successor may resolve to Yes. - Markets for persons not explicitly listed resolve to "Other" if that option exists.
PolymarketParliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Predict.fun{'description': 'Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nCreated At: 2026-03-02T13:02:07.602968828Z'}
Péter Magyar
99.6% avg
