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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 15.5% // +$1550.00

Live prediction market odds for NH-01 Democratic nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

NH-01 Democratic nominee?

2026-08-04

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the nomination for the Democratic candidate in New Hampshire's 1st congressional district for the 2026 elections. This race is crucial as it could influence party dynamics and voter turnout in a key battleground state.

Stefany Shaheen leads the “NH-01 Democratic nominee” event at 70.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Maura Sullivan (19.5%), and Carleigh Beriont (3.5%). A 15.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
SS
Stefany ShaheenARB
71% Avg
Kalshi82¢
Polymarket63¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
79.5%77¢82¢18¢23¢
PolymarketPolymarket
62.5%62¢63¢37¢38¢
MS
Maura Sullivan
18% Avg
Kalshi20¢
Polymarket38¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
16.5%13¢20¢80¢87¢
PolymarketPolymarket
20.0%2¢38¢62¢98¢
CB
Carleigh Beriont
4% Avg
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
4.5%1¢8¢93¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.0%1¢5¢95¢99¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Stefany Shaheen

Stefany Shaheen is a Democratic candidate for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District in 2026. She previously served on the Portsmouth City Council and was Chair of the Portsmouth Police Commission. Her candidacy is significant due to her deep local roots and her focus on healthcare, inspired by her daughter's experience with Type 1 diabetes.

About Maura Sullivan

Maura Sullivan is the 1st Vice Chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party. She previously served as the 2nd Vice Chair and Finance Chair of the NHDP. Sullivan is running for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 election.

About Carleigh Beriont

Carleigh Beriont is a Democratic candidate for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 elections. She currently serves on the Hampton selectboard and teaches at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. Her campaign focuses on affordability, public education, and rebuilding trust in government.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the NH-01 Democratic nominee?

Polling data, candidate fundraising, and endorsements play significant roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, voter sentiment and local issues can impact candidate viability.

How does the NH-01 race affect the broader Democratic strategy?

Winning the NH-01 seat can bolster the Democratic majority in Congress. It also serves as a litmus test for party priorities and voter engagement leading up to the general election.

What is the timeline for the NH-01 Democratic nomination process?

Candidates will engage in campaigning and debates leading up to the primary, scheduled for August 2026. Key deadlines for filing and fundraising will also influence the race dynamics.

What is "NH-01 Democratic nominee?" and why does it matter?

NH-01 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Stefany Shaheen leads at 70% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Maura Sullivan at 20%, Carleigh Beriont at 4%.

What is moving the odds on "NH-01 Democratic nominee?"?

Stefany Shaheen currently leads at 70% implied probability. Behind Stefany Shaheen, Maura Sullivan at 20% and Carleigh Beriont at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 15.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread15.5%
Platforms2
Candidates3
Leader

Stefany Shaheen

70.3% avg

Market Rulebook: NH-01 Democratic nominee?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Maura Sullivan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NH-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
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