Live prediction market odds for NH-01 Democratic nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-08-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the nomination for the Democratic candidate in New Hampshire's 1st congressional district for the 2026 elections. This race is crucial as it could influence party dynamics and voter turnout in a key battleground state.
Stefany Shaheen leads the “NH-01 Democratic nominee” event at 57.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Maura Sullivan (31.0%), and Carleigh Beriont (10.0%). Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.5% spread.
Polling data, candidate fundraising, and endorsements play significant roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, voter sentiment and local issues can impact candidate viability.
Winning the NH-01 seat can bolster the Democratic majority in Congress. It also serves as a litmus test for party priorities and voter engagement leading up to the general election.
Candidates will engage in campaigning and debates leading up to the primary, scheduled for August 2026. Key deadlines for filing and fundraising will also influence the race dynamics.
NH-01 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Stefany Shaheen leads at 57% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Maura Sullivan at 31%, Carleigh Beriont at 10%.
Stefany Shaheen currently leads at 57% implied probability. Behind Stefany Shaheen, Maura Sullivan at 31% and Carleigh Beriont at 10% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.5% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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Stefany Shaheen
57.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Maura Sullivan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NH-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
