Prediction Hunt logoPrediction Hunt
MarketsArbitrageSmart MoneyTrendingAPI
Live
Prediction Hunt

Compare prediction market odds across every platform. Find the best prices and track smart money.

Markets

  • Elections
  • Sports
  • Crypto
  • Entertainment
  • Archive

Tools

  • Trending
  • Arbitrage Scanner
  • Smart Money Feed
  • Calculators
  • News
  • Blog

Community

  • Discord
  • Twitter / X
  • About
  • API Terms of Service

This information is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always verify resolution criteria and platform rules before trading.

MarketsArbWhalesTrending

Live prediction market odds for NH-01 Democratic nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi / Polymarket

NH-01 Democratic nominee?

2026-08-04

About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the nomination for the Democratic candidate in New Hampshire's 1st congressional district for the 2026 elections. This race is crucial as it could influence party dynamics and voter turnout in a key battleground state.

Stefany Shaheen leads the “NH-01 Democratic nominee” event at 61.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Maura Sullivan (26.3%), and Carleigh Beriont (9.5%). A 5.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Live Markets

2 platforms
SS
Stefany ShaheenARB
61% Avg
Kalshi60¢
Polymarket65¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
58.5%57¢60¢40¢43¢
PolymarketPolymarket
64.0%63¢65¢35¢37¢
MS
Maura Sullivan
27% Avg
Kalshi31¢
Polymarket28¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
29.5%28¢31¢69¢72¢
PolymarketPolymarket
24.5%21¢28¢72¢79¢
CB
Carleigh Beriont
10% Avg
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
8.5%7¢10¢90¢93¢
PolymarketPolymarket
11.0%10¢12¢88¢90¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the NH-01 Democratic nominee?

Polling data, candidate fundraising, and endorsements play significant roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, voter sentiment and local issues can impact candidate viability.

How does the NH-01 race affect the broader Democratic strategy?

Winning the NH-01 seat can bolster the Democratic majority in Congress. It also serves as a litmus test for party priorities and voter engagement leading up to the general election.

What is the timeline for the NH-01 Democratic nomination process?

Candidates will engage in campaigning and debates leading up to the primary, scheduled for August 2026. Key deadlines for filing and fundraising will also influence the race dynamics.

What is "NH-01 Democratic nominee?" and why does it matter?

NH-01 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Stefany Shaheen leads at 61% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Maura Sullivan at 26%, Carleigh Beriont at 10%.

What is moving the odds on "NH-01 Democratic nominee?"?

Stefany Shaheen currently leads at 61% implied probability. Behind Stefany Shaheen, Maura Sullivan at 26% and Carleigh Beriont at 10% are the next closest contenders. The 5.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread5.5%
Platforms2
Candidates3
Leader

Stefany Shaheen

61.3% avg

Market Rulebook: NH-01 Democratic nominee?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Maura Sullivan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NH-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?