Live prediction market odds for Avalanche vs. Lightning. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-06
This market resolved on 2026-01-06. TB Lightning was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 74%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
TB LightningWINNER | 99% | 49% |
Colorado Avalanche | 1% | 52% |
Avalanche vs. Lightning was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). TB Lightning led the market at 74% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Colorado Avalanche at 26%.
TB Lightning held the lead at 74% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind TB Lightning, Colorado Avalanche at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 50.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: TB Lightning: 99¢ on Kalshi, 49¢ on Polymarket. Colorado Avalanche: 1¢ on Kalshi, 52¢ on Polymarket. The 50.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 74¢ meant the market estimated a 74% chance that TB Lightning would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 74¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 35% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
TB Lightning
73.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf TB Lightning wins the Colorado at Tampa Bay professional hockey game scheduled for Jan 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
