Question 1

What was "Senators vs. Maple Leafs" and why did it matter?

Accepted Answer

Senators vs. Maple Leafs was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX). Ottawa Senators led the market at 70% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Toronto Maple Leafs at 32%.

Question 2

What moved the odds on "Senators vs. Maple Leafs"?

Accepted Answer

Ottawa Senators held the lead at 70% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs at 32% were the next closest contenders. The 43.8% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 3

What were the final odds for "Senators vs. Maple Leafs" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX: Ottawa Senators: 56¢ on Kalshi, 56¢ on Polymarket, 99¢ on ProphetX. Toronto Maple Leafs: 45¢ on Kalshi, 45¢ on Polymarket, 7¢ on ProphetX. The 43.8% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 4

What did 70% odds for Ottawa Senators mean?

Accepted Answer

A price of 70¢ meant the market estimated a 70% chance that Ottawa Senators would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 70¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 43% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.

Candidate
Ottawa SenatorsWINNER	56%	56%	99%
Toronto Maple Leafs	45%	45%	7%

Ottawa Senators Wins: Senators vs. Maple Leafs

About This Market

Price History

Final Closing Odds

Frequently Asked Questions

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Senators vs. Maple Leafs