Live prediction market odds for Penguins vs. Lightning. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-12-04
This market resolved on 2025-12-04. PIT Penguins was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 70%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
PIT PenguinsWINNER | 99% | 42% |
TB Lightning | 1% | 59% |
Penguins vs. Lightning was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). PIT Penguins led the market at 70% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include TB Lightning at 30%.
PIT Penguins held the lead at 70% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind PIT Penguins, TB Lightning at 30% were the next closest contenders. The 57.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: PIT Penguins: 99¢ on Kalshi, 42¢ on Polymarket. TB Lightning: 1¢ on Kalshi, 59¢ on Polymarket. The 57.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 70¢ meant the market estimated a 70% chance that PIT Penguins would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 70¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 43% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
PIT Penguins
70.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf TB Lightning wins the Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay professional hockey game scheduled for Dec 4, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
