Live prediction market odds for Sharks vs. Lightning. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-20
This market resolved on 2026-01-20. TB Lightning was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 86%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
TB LightningWINNER | 99% | 74% |
SJ Sharks | 1% | 27% |
Sharks vs. Lightning was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). TB Lightning led the market at 86% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include SJ Sharks at 14%.
TB Lightning held the lead at 86% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind TB Lightning, SJ Sharks at 14% were the next closest contenders. The 25.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: TB Lightning: 99¢ on Kalshi, 74¢ on Polymarket. SJ Sharks: 1¢ on Kalshi, 27¢ on Polymarket. The 25.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 86¢ meant the market estimated a 86% chance that TB Lightning would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 86¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 16% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
TB Lightning
86.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf TB Lightning wins the San Jose at Tampa Bay professional hockey game scheduled for Jan 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
