Live prediction market odds for Lightning vs. Stars. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-18
This market resolved on 2026-01-18. TB Lightning was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
TB LightningWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Dallas Stars | 1% | 5% |
Lightning vs. Stars was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). TB Lightning led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Dallas Stars at 3%.
TB Lightning held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind TB Lightning, Dallas Stars at 3% were the next closest contenders. The 4.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: TB Lightning: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Dallas Stars: 1¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. The 4.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that TB Lightning would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
TB Lightning
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf DAL Stars wins the Tampa Bay at Dallas professional hockey game scheduled for Jan 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
