Live prediction market odds for Lightning vs. Penguins. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-13
This market resolved on 2026-01-13. TB Lightning was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 78%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
TB LightningWINNER | 99% | 57% |
PIT Penguins | 1% | 44% |
Lightning vs. Penguins was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). TB Lightning led the market at 78% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include PIT Penguins at 22%.
TB Lightning held the lead at 78% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind TB Lightning, PIT Penguins at 22% were the next closest contenders. The 42.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: TB Lightning: 99¢ on Kalshi, 57¢ on Polymarket. PIT Penguins: 1¢ on Kalshi, 44¢ on Polymarket. The 42.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 78¢ meant the market estimated a 78% chance that TB Lightning would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 78¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 28% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
TB Lightning
77.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf TB Lightning wins the Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh professional hockey game scheduled for Jan 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
