Live prediction market odds for Lightning vs. Sharks. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-03
This market resolved on 2026-01-03. TB Lightning was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
TB LightningWINNER | 99% | 100% |
SJ Sharks | 1% | 5% |
Lightning vs. Sharks was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). TB Lightning led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include SJ Sharks at 3%.
TB Lightning held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind TB Lightning, SJ Sharks at 3% were the next closest contenders. The 4.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: TB Lightning: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. SJ Sharks: 1¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. The 4.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that TB Lightning would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
TB Lightning
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf SJ Sharks wins the Tampa Bay vs San Jose professional hockey game scheduled for Jan 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
