Live prediction market odds for NJ-11 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NJ-11 House race set for November 3, 2026. This election is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.
Republican Party is priced at 5.8% implied probability for the “NJ-11 House winner” event. A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and historical voting patterns also play a critical role.
Odds fluctuate based on new information such as polling results, candidate debates, and major endorsements. Market participants react to these developments, impacting the perceived likelihood of each outcome.
Winning the NJ-11 House seat could significantly affect party control in the House of Representatives. This election may also signal broader trends in voter preferences leading into future elections.
NJ-11 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 6% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Republican Party currently leads at 6% implied probability. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Republican Party
5.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for NJ-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
