Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the NJ-12 Democratic nominee?

Accepted Answer

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising efforts are key factors that shape the odds. Additionally, local issues and voter sentiment can significantly impact candidate viability.

Question 2

How does the NJ-12 district historically vote?

Accepted Answer

NJ-12 has a history of leaning Democratic, but voter turnout and candidate appeal can alter outcomes. Historical voting patterns provide context but do not guarantee future results.

Question 3

What is the timeline for the NJ-12 Democratic nomination process?

Accepted Answer

The nomination process typically culminates in the primary elections held on June 2, 2026. Candidates will campaign and participate in debates leading up to this date to secure their position.

Question 4

What is "NJ-12 Democratic nominee?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

NJ-12 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Adam Hamawy leads at 38% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Susan Altman at 26%, Brad Cohen at 30%, Verlina Reynolds-Jackson at 16%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "NJ-12 Democratic nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

Adam Hamawy currently leads at 38% implied probability. Behind Adam Hamawy, Susan Altman at 26% and Brad Cohen at 30% and Verlina Reynolds-Jackson at 16% are the next closest contenders. The 32.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "NJ-12 Democratic nominee?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt: Adam Hamawy: 33¢ on Kalshi, 31¢ on Polymarket, 50¢ on PredictIt. Susan Altman: 25¢ on Kalshi, 27¢ on Polymarket. Brad Cohen: 21¢ on Kalshi, 18¢ on Polymarket, 50¢ on PredictIt. Verlina Reynolds-Jackson: 11¢ on Kalshi, 21¢ on Polymarket. The 32.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Adam Hamawy is at 38%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 38¢ means the market estimates a 38% probability that Adam Hamawy will be the outcome. Buying one share at 38¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 163% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	32.5%	29¢	36¢	64¢	71¢
Polymarket	30.5%	24¢	37¢	63¢	76¢
PredictIt	52.0%	5¢	99¢	1¢	95¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	26.5%	23¢	30¢	70¢	77¢
Polymarket	26.5%	23¢	30¢	70¢	77¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	17.5%	14¢	21¢	79¢	86¢
Polymarket	17.5%	14¢	21¢	79¢	86¢
PredictIt	50.5%	2¢	99¢	1¢	98¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	7.0%	3¢	11¢	89¢	97¢
Polymarket	20.5%	10¢	31¢	69¢	90¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	3.0%	0¢	6¢	94¢	100¢
Polymarket	6.5%	5¢	8¢	93¢	95¢

NJ-12 Democratic nominee?

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