What are the current odds for "NL Manager of the Year Winner?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Walt Weiss: 31¢ on Kalshi, 28¢ on Polymarket. Don Kelly: 17¢ on Kalshi, 19¢ on Polymarket. Craig Counsell: 11¢ on Kalshi, 13¢ on Polymarket. Dave Roberts: 8¢ on Kalshi, 8¢ on Polymarket. The 3.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Walt Weiss is at 29%?

A price of 29¢ means the market estimates a 29% probability that Walt Weiss will be the outcome. Buying one share at 29¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 245% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

NL Manager of the Year Winner? Odds

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NL Manager of the Year Winner? Odds — Walt Weiss 29¢

About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the NL Manager of the Year Winner for the 2026 season. This award highlights managerial excellence in the National League, influencing team dynamics and future hiring decisions in Major League Baseball.

Walt Weiss leads the “NL Manager of the Year Winner” event at 29.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Don Kelly (17.5%), Craig Counsell (11.8%), Dave Roberts (7.8%), and Craig Stammen (6.0%). A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

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Live Markets

2 platforms

Walt WeissARB

30% Avg

35¢

28¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	33.0%	31¢	35¢	65¢	69¢
Polymarket	27.5%	27¢	28¢	72¢	73¢

Don Kelly

18% Avg

18¢

19¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	16.5%	15¢	18¢	82¢	85¢
Polymarket	18.5%	18¢	19¢	81¢	82¢

Craig Counsell

12% Avg

13¢

14¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	10.5%	8¢	13¢	87¢	92¢
Polymarket	12.5%	11¢	14¢	86¢	89¢

Dave Roberts

8% Avg

9¢

8¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	8.0%	7¢	9¢	91¢	93¢
Polymarket	7.5%	7¢	8¢	92¢	93¢

Craig Stammen

6% Avg

8¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	4.5%	1¢	8¢	92¢	99¢
Polymarket	7.5%	7¢	8¢	92¢	93¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Walt Weiss

Walt Weiss is the current manager of the Atlanta Braves. He managed the Colorado Rockies from 2013 to 2016. He is relevant to this prediction market as the Braves' manager during the 2026 season.

About Don Kelly

Don Kelly is the manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was promoted from bench coach to manager on May 8, 2025, after the firing of Derek Shelton. Kelly is relevant to this prediction market as the current manager of the Pirates, a team eligible for the NL Manager of the Year award.

About Craig Counsell

Craig Counsell is the current manager of the Chicago Cubs, a position he has held since November 2023. Prior to this, he managed the Milwaukee Brewers for nine seasons, leading them to five postseason appearances and setting a franchise record with 707 regular-season wins. His extensive managerial experience and recent tenure with the Brewers make him a strong candidate for the NL Manager of the Year award.

About Dave Roberts

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the NL Manager of the Year odds?

Performance metrics, team success, and managerial decisions throughout the season significantly impact the odds. Additionally, media narratives and expert opinions can sway public perception.

When is the NL Manager of the Year announced?

The NL Manager of the Year is typically announced in December, shortly after the conclusion of the MLB season. This timing allows for a comprehensive evaluation of managerial performance over the entire season.

How do prediction markets determine the odds for this award?

Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, reflecting collective expectations about the outcome. As new information becomes available, such as team performance and player statistics, the odds are adjusted accordingly.

What is "NL Manager of the Year Winner?" and why does it matter?

NL Manager of the Year Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Walt Weiss leads at 29% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Don Kelly at 18%, Craig Counsell at 12%, Dave Roberts at 8%.

What is moving the odds on "NL Manager of the Year Winner?"?

Walt Weiss currently leads at 29% implied probability. Behind Walt Weiss, Don Kelly at 18% and Craig Counsell at 12% and Dave Roberts at 8% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Spread3.5%

Platforms2

Candidates13

Leader

Walt Weiss

29.3% avg

NL Manager of the Year Winner?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Walt Weiss

About Don Kelly

About Craig Counsell

About Dave Roberts

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: NL Manager of the Year Winner?

About Craig Stammen

About Pat Murphy

About Carlos Mendoza

About Torey Lovullo

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About Warren Schaeffer

About Clayton McCullough

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