Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the NL Manager of the Year Winner for the 2026 season. This award highlights managerial excellence in the National League, influencing team dynamics and future hiring decisions in Major League Baseball.
Tony Vitello leads the “NL Manager of the Year Winner” event at 29.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Dave Roberts (28.5%), Pat Murphy (27.0%), Clayton McCullough (26.8%), and Don Kelly (26.8%). A 44.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Tony Vitello is the manager of the San Francisco Giants. He led the University of Tennessee Volunteers to their first NCAA baseball championship in 2024. His experience in leading a team to a national title makes him a strong candidate for NL Manager of the Year.
About Dave Roberts
Dave Roberts is the current manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers. He led the team to a World Series victory in 2024 and another in 2025. His recent successes make him a strong candidate for the NL Manager of the Year award.
About Pat Murphy
Pat Murphy is the current manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. He previously served as the Brewers' bench coach from 2015 to 2023. Murphy's leadership led the Brewers to consecutive NL Manager of the Year awards in 2024 and 2025.
About Clayton McCullough
Clayton McCullough is the manager of the Miami Marlins. He previously served as the first base coach for the Los Angeles Dodgers, contributing to their 2024 World Series victory. His recent appointment as Marlins manager makes him a candidate for the 2025 NL Manager of the Year award.
About Don Kelly
Don Kelly is the manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was promoted from bench coach to manager on May 8, 2025, after the firing of Derek Shelton. Kelly is relevant to this prediction market as the current manager of the Pirates, a team eligible for the NL Manager of the Year award.
About Craig Counsell
Craig Counsell is the current manager of the Chicago Cubs, a position he has held since November 2023. Prior to this, he managed the Milwaukee Brewers for nine seasons, leading them to five postseason appearances and setting a franchise record with 707 regular-season wins. His extensive managerial experience and recent tenure with the Brewers make him a strong candidate for the NL Manager of the Year award.
About Blake Butera
Blake Butera is the manager of the Washington Nationals. He previously managed the Charleston RiverDogs, leading them to back-to-back league championships in 2021 and 2022. His experience in developing young talent makes him a strong candidate for NL Manager of the Year.
About Walt Weiss
Walt Weiss is the current manager of the Atlanta Braves. He managed the Colorado Rockies from 2013 to 2016. He is relevant to this prediction market as the Braves' manager during the 2026 season.
About Torey Lovullo
Torey Lovullo is the current manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He led the team to a World Series appearance in 2023. His leadership and success make him a strong candidate for the NL Manager of the Year award.
About Warren Schaeffer
Warren Schaeffer is the current manager of the Colorado Rockies. He previously managed the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes and was named the 2020 P.J. Carey Player Development Award winner. Schaeffer's extensive experience in the Rockies organization makes him a strong candidate for the National League Manager of the Year.
About Craig Stammen
Craig Stammen is the manager of the San Diego Padres, having signed a three-year contract in November 2025. He retired as a pitcher in August 2023 after a 13-year MLB career, primarily with the Padres. His recent appointment as manager makes him a candidate for the NL Manager of the Year award.
About Rob Thomson
Rob Thomson is the manager of the Philadelphia Phillies. He led the team to the 2022 World Series and the 2023 National League Championship Series. His leadership makes him a strong candidate for NL Manager of the Year.
About Oliver Marmol
Oliver Marmol is the manager of the St. Louis Cardinals. He led the team to a National League Central title in 2022. He is relevant to this prediction market as the current manager of the team in question.
About Terry Francona
Terry Francona is the current manager of the Cincinnati Reds. He previously managed the Cleveland Guardians, leading them to four division titles and a World Series appearance in 2016. His extensive managerial experience and success in the American League make him a strong candidate for the National League Manager of the Year award.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors influence the NL Manager of the Year odds?
Performance metrics, team success, and managerial decisions throughout the season significantly impact the odds. Additionally, media narratives and expert opinions can sway public perception.
When is the NL Manager of the Year announced?
The NL Manager of the Year is typically announced in December, shortly after the conclusion of the MLB season. This timing allows for a comprehensive evaluation of managerial performance over the entire season.
How do prediction markets determine the odds for this award?
Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, reflecting collective expectations about the outcome. As new information becomes available, such as team performance and player statistics, the odds are adjusted accordingly.
What is "NL Manager of the Year Winner?" and why does it matter?
NL Manager of the Year Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Tony Vitello leads at 30% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Dave Roberts at 29%, Pat Murphy at 27%, Clayton McCullough at 27%.
What is moving the odds on "NL Manager of the Year Winner?"?
Tony Vitello currently leads at 30% implied probability. Behind Tony Vitello, Dave Roberts at 29% and Pat Murphy at 27% and Clayton McCullough at 27% are the next closest contenders. The 44.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
