Live prediction market odds for NM-02 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
2026-11-04
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the NM-02 House winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, with candidates vying for key voter demographics in a competitive district.
Democratic Party leads the “NM-02 House winner” event at 70.3% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 21.0%. A 36.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Additionally, national political trends and voter turnout will play significant roles.
The NM-02 House election is set for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election date for federal offices.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect collective beliefs about the likelihood of various candidates winning.
NM-02 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Democratic Party leads at 70% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 21%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 70% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 21% are the next closest contenders. The 36.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Democratic Party
70.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for NM-2 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
