Live prediction market odds for North Carolina Senate Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the North Carolina Senate Election Winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate and impact key legislation moving forward.
Democrat leads the “North Carolina Senate Election Winner” event at 83.5% implied probability, followed by Republican at 15.8%. A 3.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate fundraising, and voter sentiment play significant roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, national political trends and key issues can sway public opinion leading up to the election.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of events, such as elections. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various candidates winning.
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle in the United States, where multiple federal and state offices are contested.
North Carolina Senate Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democrat leads at 84% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican at 16%.
Democrat currently leads at 84% implied probability. Behind Democrat, Republican at 16% are the next closest contenders. A 3.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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Democrat
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
83.5% avg
