Live prediction market odds for North Carolina Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the North Carolina Senate winner for the 2026 election. This race is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in the Senate, influenced by voter sentiment and party strategies leading up to the election date.
Democrat is priced at 75.0% implied probability for the “North Carolina Senate winner” event. A 24.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, national political climate and major events can sway public opinion.
The outcome could shift the majority control in the Senate, impacting legislative agendas. A change in party representation may also influence judicial appointments and policy decisions.
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle, where multiple federal and state offices are contested.
North Carolina Senate winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democrat leads at 75% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Democrat currently leads at 75% implied probability. The 24.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democrat
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
75.0% avg
