Live prediction market odds for NV-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the outcome of the NV-04 House race for the 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.
Democratic Party leads the “NV-04 House winner” event at 84.3% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 10.8%. A 5.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements also play significant roles in shaping market sentiment.
The outcome could shift the majority in the House of Representatives, affecting legislative priorities and governance. Additionally, it serves as a barometer for national trends in voter behavior leading into the 2026 elections.
Election Day is set for November 4, 2026, with campaigns ramping up in the months leading to the election. Key events, such as debates and town halls, will likely influence voter opinions and market odds.
NV-04 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 84% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 11%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 84% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 11% are the next closest contenders. The 5.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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This market resolves based on official announcements from authoritative sources. Prediction Hunt aggregates odds across platforms but does not determine outcomes. Each platform maintains its own resolution criteria — check each platform's rules before trading.
Democratic Party
84.3% avg
