Live prediction market odds for NV-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the outcome of the NV-04 House race for the 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.
Democratic Party leads the “NV-04 House winner” event at 51.8% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 46.8%. A 81.6% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements also play significant roles in shaping market sentiment.
The outcome could shift the majority in the House of Representatives, affecting legislative priorities and governance. Additionally, it serves as a barometer for national trends in voter behavior leading into the 2026 elections.
Election Day is set for November 4, 2026, with campaigns ramping up in the months leading to the election. Key events, such as debates and town halls, will likely influence voter opinions and market odds.
NV-04 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 52% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 47%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 52% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 47% are the next closest contenders. The 81.6% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democratic Party
51.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for NV-4 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
