Live prediction market odds for NY-03 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the NY-03 House winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both major parties as they strategize their campaigns.
Democratic Party leads the “NY-03 House winner” event at 43.5% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 33.0%. A 18.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Additionally, national political trends and local issues can sway voter sentiment.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on the likelihood of specific outcomes. Prices reflect collective expectations and can change rapidly with new information.
Winning the NY-03 House seat is crucial for both parties as it contributes to their overall majority in the House of Representatives. Control of the House can significantly impact legislative agendas and governance.
NY-03 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 44% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 33%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 44% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 33% are the next closest contenders. The 18.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democratic Party
43.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for NY-3 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
