Live prediction market odds for NY-03 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Democratic Party leads the “NY-03 House winner” event at 75.8% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 22.8%. A 8.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
NY-03 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 76% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 23%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 76% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 23% are the next closest contenders. The 8.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Democratic Party: 80¢ on Kalshi, 72¢ on Polymarket. Republican Party: 24¢ on Kalshi, 22¢ on Polymarket. The 8.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 76¢ means the market estimates a 76% probability that Democratic Party will be the outcome. Buying one share at 76¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 32% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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This market resolves based on official announcements from authoritative sources. Prediction Hunt aggregates odds across platforms but does not determine outcomes. Each platform maintains its own resolution criteria — check each platform's rules before trading.
Democratic Party
75.8% avg
