Live prediction market odds for NY-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
2026-11-04
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the NY-04 House winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.
Democratic Party leads the “NY-04 House winner” event at 80.7% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 40.5%. A 63.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds can be influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising success, and local issues. Additionally, national trends and party dynamics play a significant role in shaping voter preferences.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts based on the likelihood of specific outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and expectations of market participants regarding the election results.
Winning the NY-04 House seat could shift the majority in Congress, affecting legislation and governance. Local issues and candidate platforms will also resonate with voters, making this race particularly significant.
NY-04 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Democratic Party leads at 81% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 41%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 81% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 41% are the next closest contenders. The 63.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democratic Party
80.7% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for NY-4 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.
