Live prediction market odds for NY-07 Democratic nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
2026-06-23
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the race for the NY-07 Democratic nominee ahead of the 2026 elections. This contest is crucial as it will determine the party's candidate in a competitive district, influencing the overall balance of power in Congress.
Claire Valdez leads the “NY-07 Democratic nominee” event at 66.0% implied probability, followed by Antonio Reynoso at 31.0%. A 10.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising efforts are key factors that influence the odds. Additionally, shifts in voter sentiment and national political trends can impact the race.
The primary election for the NY-07 Democratic nominee is scheduled for June 23, 2026. This date is critical for candidates to secure their position ahead of the general election.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of the outcome. Prices fluctuate based on market sentiment and new information, reflecting the perceived likelihood of each candidate's success.
NY-07 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Claire Valdez leads at 66% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Antonio Reynoso at 31%.
Claire Valdez currently leads at 66% implied probability. Behind Claire Valdez, Antonio Reynoso at 31% are the next closest contenders. The 10.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Claire Valdez
66.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Claire Valdez wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
