Live prediction market odds for NY-11 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NY-11 House race. This election outcome will influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key local issues leading up to the 2026 elections.
Republican Party leads the “NY-11 House winner” event at 86.8% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 10.8%. A 1.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include candidate popularity, local issues, and national political trends. Polling data and campaign strategies also play a significant role in shaping predictions.
The NY-11 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date coincides with the general election, where multiple offices are contested.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect collective beliefs about the likelihood of various candidates winning.
NY-11 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 87% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 11%.
Republican Party currently leads at 87% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 11% are the next closest contenders. A 1.5% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Republican Party
86.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for NY-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
