Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the NY-13 Democratic nominee?

Accepted Answer

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign funding are critical in shaping the odds. Additionally, voter sentiment and demographic shifts in the district can play a significant role.

Question 2

When will the Democratic nominee for NY-13 be determined?

Accepted Answer

The nominee will be decided during the primary elections scheduled for June 23, 2026. This date is crucial as it sets the stage for the general election.

Question 3

How does the NY-13 race impact national elections?

Accepted Answer

The outcome of the NY-13 Democratic nomination can influence party strategies in other districts. A strong candidate may bolster Democratic chances in surrounding areas and contribute to the overall party momentum.

Question 4

What is "NY-13 Democratic nominee?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

NY-13 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Adriano Espaillat leads at 65% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Darializa Avila Chevalier at 33%, Oscar Romero at 3%, James Felton Keith at 4%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "NY-13 Democratic nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

Adriano Espaillat currently leads at 65% implied probability. Behind Adriano Espaillat, Darializa Avila Chevalier at 33% and Oscar Romero at 3% and James Felton Keith at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 10.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "NY-13 Democratic nominee?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Adriano Espaillat: 70¢ on Kalshi, 60¢ on Polymarket. Darializa Avila Chevalier: 33¢ on Kalshi, 33¢ on Polymarket. Oscar Romero: 1¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. James Felton Keith: 4¢ on Kalshi, 4¢ on Polymarket. The 10.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Adriano Espaillat is at 65%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 65¢ means the market estimates a 65% probability that Adriano Espaillat will be the outcome. Buying one share at 65¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 54% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	66.5%	63¢	70¢	30¢	37¢
Polymarket	60.0%	57¢	63¢	37¢	43¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	33.0%	31¢	35¢	65¢	69¢
Polymarket	32.5%	30¢	35¢	65¢	70¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.5%	1¢	4¢	96¢	99¢
Polymarket	5.0%	5¢	5¢	95¢	95¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.0%	0¢	4¢	96¢	100¢
Polymarket	4.0%	2¢	6¢	94¢	98¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.0%	0¢	4¢	96¢	100¢
Polymarket	2.0%	1¢	3¢	97¢	99¢

NY-13 Democratic nominee?

About This Market

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About Adriano Espaillat

About Darializa Avila Chevalier

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Market Rulebook: NY-13 Democratic nominee?