Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the NY-13 Democratic nominee?

Accepted Answer

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign funding are critical in shaping the odds. Additionally, voter sentiment and demographic shifts in the district can play a significant role.

Question 2

When will the Democratic nominee for NY-13 be determined?

Accepted Answer

The nominee will be decided during the primary elections scheduled for June 23, 2026. This date is crucial as it sets the stage for the general election.

Question 3

How does the NY-13 race impact national elections?

Accepted Answer

The outcome of the NY-13 Democratic nomination can influence party strategies in other districts. A strong candidate may bolster Democratic chances in surrounding areas and contribute to the overall party momentum.

Question 4

What is "NY-13 Democratic nominee?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

NY-13 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Adriano Espaillat leads at 49% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Darializa Avila Chevalier at 40%, Oscar Romero at 4%, Theo Chino-Tavarez at 3%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "NY-13 Democratic nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

Adriano Espaillat currently leads at 49% implied probability. Behind Adriano Espaillat, Darializa Avila Chevalier at 40% and Oscar Romero at 4% and Theo Chino-Tavarez at 3% are the next closest contenders. The 8.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "NY-13 Democratic nominee?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Adriano Espaillat: 53¢ on Kalshi, 45¢ on Polymarket. Darializa Avila Chevalier: 42¢ on Kalshi, 38¢ on Polymarket. Oscar Romero: 4¢ on Kalshi, 4¢ on Polymarket. Theo Chino-Tavarez: 4¢ on Kalshi, 1¢ on Polymarket. The 8.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Adriano Espaillat is at 49%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 49¢ means the market estimates a 49% probability that Adriano Espaillat will be the outcome. Buying one share at 49¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 104% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	53.0%	50¢	56¢	44¢	50¢
Polymarket	45.0%	36¢	54¢	46¢	64¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	41.5%	39¢	44¢	56¢	61¢
Polymarket	37.5%	33¢	42¢	58¢	67¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.5%	1¢	4¢	96¢	99¢
Polymarket	4.0%	4¢	4¢	96¢	96¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	4.0%	3¢	5¢	95¢	97¢
Polymarket	1.5%	1¢	2¢	99¢	99¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.0%	0¢	4¢	96¢	100¢
Polymarket	0.0%	0¢	0¢	100¢	100¢

NY-13 Democratic nominee?

About This Market

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About Adriano Espaillat

About Darializa Avila Chevalier

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Market Rulebook: NY-13 Democratic nominee?