Live prediction market odds for NY-21 Republican nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-23
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the NY-21 Republican nominee ahead of the 2026 elections. The outcome will influence party dynamics and strategies in a key congressional district, impacting broader electoral trends in New York.
Anthony Constantino leads the “NY-21 Republican nominee” event at 81.8% implied probability, followed by Robert Smullen at 19.8%. A 1.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by candidate polling, endorsements, and campaign activities. Changes in voter sentiment and party alignment also play a crucial role.
NY-21 is considered a battleground district that can sway the overall balance of power in Congress. Winning this seat is vital for the Republican Party's strategy in New York.
The primary election for the NY-21 Republican nominee is scheduled for June 23, 2026. This date is critical for determining the party's candidate for the general election.
NY-21 Republican nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Anthony Constantino leads at 82% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Robert Smullen at 20%.
Anthony Constantino currently leads at 82% implied probability. Behind Anthony Constantino, Robert Smullen at 20% are the next closest contenders. A 1.5% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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Anthony Constantino
81.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Anthony Constantino wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NY-21 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
