Live prediction market odds for NY-22 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NY-22 House race in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, impacting legislative priorities and national policies.
Democratic Party leads the “NY-22 House winner” event at 64.0% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 28.5%. A 40.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate fundraising, and local issues play significant roles in shaping the odds. Voter sentiment and turnout predictions also impact market movements.
The outcome could shift the balance of power in the House of Representatives. A change in party control may lead to different legislative agendas and priorities.
The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle, which includes various federal and state contests.
NY-22 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 64% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 29%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 64% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 29% are the next closest contenders. The 40.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democratic Party
64.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for NY-22 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
