Live prediction market odds for Oregon Governor winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the Oregon Governor race in the upcoming 2026 election. This contest will shape state policies and influence party dynamics in Oregon, making it a focal point for both local and national political strategies.
Democrat is priced at 86.0% implied probability for the “Oregon Governor winner” event. A 5.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The Oregon Governor election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date marks the culmination of the electoral process for the state's highest office.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, polling data, and campaign funding. Additionally, local issues and national political trends can sway voter sentiment leading up to the election.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on the likelihood of specific outcomes, such as election results. Prices reflect collective expectations and can change rapidly with new information or events.
Oregon Governor winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democrat leads at 86% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Democrat currently leads at 86% implied probability. The 5.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democrat
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Oregon pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
86.0% avg
