Live prediction market odds for Oregon Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oregon Senate winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is vital as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate, with implications for key legislation and party agendas.
Democrat leads the “Oregon Senate winner” event at 93.8% implied probability, followed by Republican at 4.5%. A 4.9% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate popularity, and campaign funding all play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, national political trends and voter turnout predictions can significantly impact the race.
The outcome of the Oregon Senate race could shift the balance of power in the Senate, affecting legislative priorities and the ability to pass laws. A change in party control may also influence judicial appointments and other key decisions.
The Oregon Senate election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle, where various federal and state offices are contested.
Oregon Senate winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democrat leads at 94% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican at 5%.
Democrat currently leads at 94% implied probability. Behind Democrat, Republican at 5% are the next closest contenders. The 4.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democrat
93.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Oregon for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
