Prediction Hunt logoPrediction Hunt
MarketsArbitrageSmart MoneyTrendingAPI
Live
Prediction Hunt

Compare prediction market odds across every platform. Find the best prices and track smart money.

Markets

  • Elections
  • Sports
  • Crypto
  • Entertainment
  • Archive

Tools

  • Trending
  • Arbitrage Scanner
  • Smart Money Feed
  • Calculators
  • News
  • Blog

Community

  • Discord
  • Twitter / X
  • About
  • API Terms of Service

This information is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always verify resolution criteria and platform rules before trading.

MarketsArbWhalesTrending

Live prediction market odds for Oscar for Best Supporting Actress?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Opinion.

Kalshi / Polymarket / Opinion

Oscar for Best Supporting Actress?

2026-03-15

About This Market

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress for the 2026 Academy Awards. This award influences industry recognition and can significantly impact the careers of nominees, making it a focal point during awards season.

Amy Madigan leads Oscar for Best Supporting Actress at 55.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Teyana Taylor (24.9%), Wunmi Mosaku (18.3%), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (2.6%), and Elle Fanning (2.6%). A 6.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Live Markets

3 platforms
AM
Amy Madigan
55% Avg
Kalshi56¢
Polymarket55¢
Opinion57¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
55.5%55¢56¢44¢45¢
PolymarketPolymarket
55.0%55¢55¢45¢45¢
OpinionOpinion
55.0%53¢57¢43¢47¢
TT
Teyana Taylor
25% Avg
Kalshi25¢
Polymarket25¢
Opinion27¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
24.5%24¢25¢75¢76¢
PolymarketPolymarket
24.5%24¢25¢75¢76¢
OpinionOpinion
25.0%23¢27¢73¢77¢
WM
Wunmi Mosaku
18% Avg
Kalshi19¢
Polymarket18¢
Opinion21¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
18.5%18¢19¢81¢82¢
PolymarketPolymarket
17.5%17¢18¢82¢83¢
OpinionOpinion
18.5%16¢21¢79¢84¢
II
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
2% Avg
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket3¢
Opinion3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
2.5%2¢3¢97¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.0%3¢3¢97¢97¢
OpinionOpinion
1.5%0¢3¢97¢100¢
EF
Elle FanningARB
2% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket0¢
Opinion12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢
OpinionOpinion
6.5%1¢12¢88¢99¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Best Supporting Actress Oscar?

Odds are influenced by performances in films, critical acclaim, and industry buzz leading up to the awards. Additionally, previous awards and nominations can sway market perceptions.

When is the 2026 Academy Awards ceremony scheduled?

The 2026 Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026. This date is significant as it marks the culmination of the awards season.

How do prediction markets reflect changes in public opinion about nominees?

Prediction markets adjust in real-time based on news, social media sentiment, and expert opinions. As discussions around nominees evolve, so do the odds, reflecting the collective sentiment of market participants.

What is "Oscar for Best Supporting Actress?" and why does it matter?

Oscar for Best Supporting Actress is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion). Amy Madigan leads at 55% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Teyana Taylor at 25%, Wunmi Mosaku at 18%, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas at 3%.

What is moving the odds on "Oscar for Best Supporting Actress?"?

Amy Madigan currently leads at 55% implied probability. Behind Amy Madigan, Teyana Taylor at 25% and Wunmi Mosaku at 18% and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas at 3% are the next closest contenders. The 6.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracleoscars.orgConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread6.5%
Platforms3
Candidates5
Leader

Amy Madigan

55.3% avg

Market Rulebook: Oscar for Best Supporting Actress?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Teyana Taylor has won Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.

PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracleoscars.orgConsensus of Sources