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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 18.5% // +$1850.00

Live prediction market odds for Oscar nominations for Best Actor?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Oscar nominations for Best Actor?

2027-01-21

About This Market

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Oscar nominations for Best Actor are being tracked on Polymarket and Kalshi. This event influences industry recognition and can significantly impact the careers of the nominated actors and their associated films.

John Malkovich leads the “Oscar nominations for Best Actor” event at 68.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Tom Cruise (67.5%), Ryan Gosling (64.3%), Sebastian Stan (51.8%), and Robert Aramayo (26.3%). A 18.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
JM
John MalkovichARB
68% Avg
Kalshi66¢
Polymarket71¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
65.0%64¢66¢34¢36¢
PolymarketPolymarket
70.0%69¢71¢29¢31¢
TC
Tom CruiseARB
67% Avg
Kalshi64¢
Polymarket71¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
63.0%62¢64¢36¢38¢
PolymarketPolymarket
70.0%69¢71¢29¢31¢
RG
Ryan GoslingARB
64% Avg
Kalshi57¢
Polymarket72¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
56.0%55¢57¢43¢45¢
PolymarketPolymarket
71.0%70¢72¢28¢30¢
SS
Sebastian StanARB
51% Avg
Kalshi61¢
Polymarket43¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
60.0%59¢61¢39¢41¢
PolymarketPolymarket
42.0%41¢43¢57¢59¢
RA
Robert AramayoARB
26% Avg
Kalshi23¢
Polymarket30¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
22.0%21¢23¢77¢79¢
PolymarketPolymarket
29.0%28¢30¢70¢72¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for Best Actor nominations?

Odds are influenced by performances in films, critical reception, and awards season momentum. Additionally, industry buzz and media coverage play a crucial role.

When will the Oscar nominations be announced?

The Oscar nominations for Best Actor will be announced on January 21, 2027. This date is critical for shaping the awards season narrative.

How do prediction markets reflect changes in public sentiment about nominees?

Prediction markets adjust in real-time based on new information, such as award wins or significant film releases. As public and critical sentiment shifts, so do the odds.

What is "Oscar nominations for Best Actor?" and why does it matter?

Oscar nominations for Best Actor is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). John Malkovich leads at 69% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Tom Cruise at 68%, Ryan Gosling at 64%, Sebastian Stan at 52%.

What is moving the odds on "Oscar nominations for Best Actor?"?

John Malkovich currently leads at 69% implied probability. Behind John Malkovich, Tom Cruise at 68% and Ryan Gosling at 64% and Sebastian Stan at 52% are the next closest contenders. The 18.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

This market resolves based on official announcements from authoritative sources. Prediction Hunt aggregates odds across platforms but does not determine outcomes. Each platform maintains its own resolution criteria — check each platform's rules before trading.

Stats
Spread18.5%
Platforms2
Candidates6
Volume$30K
Leader

John Malkovich

68.5% avg

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