Live prediction market odds for Oscar nominations for Best Actress?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-22
This market resolved on 2026-01-22. Emma Stone was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Emma StoneWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Jessie Buckley | 99% | 100% |
Kate Hudson | 99% | 100% |
Renate Reinsve | 99% | 100% |
Rose Byrne | 99% | 100% |
Jodie Comer | 3% | 50% |
June Squibb | 2% | 50% |
Amanda Seyfried | 1% | 50% |
Cynthia Erivo | 1% | 50% |
Eva Victor | 1% | 50% |
Jennifer Lawrence | 1% | 50% |
Jessica Lange | 1% | 50% |
Julia Roberts | 1% | 50% |
Lucy Liu | 1% | 50% |
Saoirse Ronan | 1% | 50% |
Sydney Sweeney | 1% | 50% |
Oscar nominations for Best Actress was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Emma Stone led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Jessie Buckley at 100%, Kate Hudson at 100%, Renate Reinsve at 100%.
Emma Stone held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Emma Stone, Jessie Buckley at 100% and Kate Hudson at 100% and Renate Reinsve at 100% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Emma Stone: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Jessie Buckley: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Kate Hudson: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Renate Reinsve: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Emma Stone would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Emma Stone
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Jessie Buckley has been nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026.
