Live prediction market odds for Oscar nominations for Best Director?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-22
This market resolved on 2026-01-22. Chloé Zhao was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Chloé ZhaoWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Joachim Trier | 99% | 100% |
Josh Safdie | 99% | 100% |
Paul Thomas Anderson | 99% | 100% |
Ryan Coogler | 99% | 100% |
Anthony Maras | 3% | 50% |
Kathryn Bigelow | 3% | 50% |
Zach Cregger | 2% | 50% |
Benny Safdie | 1% | 50% |
Clint Bentley | 1% | 50% |
Edward Berger | 1% | 50% |
Guillermo del Toro | 1% | 50% |
Jafar Panahi | 1% | 50% |
James Cameron | 1% | 50% |
Jon M. Chu | 1% | 50% |
Kleber Mendonça Filho | 1% | 50% |
Mona Fastvold | 1% | 50% |
Noah Baumbach | 1% | 50% |
Park Chan-wook | 1% | 50% |
Yorgos Lanthimos | 1% | 50% |
Oscar nominations for Best Director was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Chloé Zhao led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Joachim Trier at 100%, Josh Safdie at 100%, Paul Thomas Anderson at 100%.
Chloé Zhao held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Chloé Zhao, Joachim Trier at 100% and Josh Safdie at 100% and Paul Thomas Anderson at 100% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Chloé Zhao: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Joachim Trier: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Josh Safdie: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Paul Thomas Anderson: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Chloé Zhao would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Chloé Zhao
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Kathryn Bigelow has been nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026.
