Question 1

What was "Oscar nominations for Best Documentary Feature Film?" and why did it matter?

Accepted Answer

Oscar nominations for Best Documentary Feature Film was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Come See Me in the Good Light led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Cutting Through Rocks at 100%, Mr. Nobody Against Putin at 100%, The Perfect Neighbor at 100%.

Question 2

What moved the odds on "Oscar nominations for Best Documentary Feature Film?"?

Accepted Answer

Come See Me in the Good Light held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks at 100% and Mr. Nobody Against Putin at 100% and The Perfect Neighbor at 100% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 3

What were the final odds for "Oscar nominations for Best Documentary Feature Film?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Come See Me in the Good Light: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Cutting Through Rocks: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Mr. Nobody Against Putin: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The Perfect Neighbor: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 4

What did 100% odds for Come See Me in the Good Light mean?

Accepted Answer

A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Come See Me in the Good Light would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.

Candidate
Come See Me in the Good LightWINNER	99%	100%
Cutting Through Rocks	99%	100%
Mr. Nobody Against Putin	99%	100%
The Perfect Neighbor	99%	100%
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere	3%	50%
2000 Meters to Andriivka	1%	50%
Apocalypse in the Tropics	1%	50%
Architecton	1%	50%
Endless Cookie	1%	50%
Orwell: 2+2=5	1%	50%
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk	1%	50%
Selena y Los Dinos	1%	50%
Deaf President Now	1%	0%

Come See Me in the Good Light Wins: Oscar nominations for Best Documentary Feature Film?

About This Market

Price History

Final Closing Odds

Frequently Asked Questions

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Oscar nominations for Best Documentary Feature Film?