Live prediction market odds for Oscars 2026: Achievement in Casting Nominations. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-22
This market resolved on 2026-01-22. Hamnet was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
HamnetWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Sinners | 99% | 100% |
One Battle After Another | 98% | 100% |
Marty Supreme | 96% | 100% |
Wake Up Dead Man | 5% | 50% |
Avatar: Fire and Ash | 4% | 50% |
Jay Kelly | 4% | 50% |
Rental Family | 4% | 50% |
Frankenstein | 2% | 50% |
Sentimental Value | 1% | 50% |
Wicked: For Good | 1% | 50% |
F1 | 1% | 0% |
Oscars 2026: Achievement in Casting Nominations was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Hamnet led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Sinners at 100%, One Battle After Another at 99%, Marty Supreme at 98%.
Hamnet held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Hamnet, Sinners at 100% and One Battle After Another at 99% and Marty Supreme at 98% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Hamnet: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Sinners: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. One Battle After Another: 98¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Marty Supreme: 96¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Hamnet would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Hamnet
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Cassandra Kulukundis has been nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
**Clarification 09/23/2025: If a strike lists two casting directors (e.g., “Jane Doe & John Smith”), the strike will resolve Yes only if that exact pair is officially credited as the nominees. If only one of the individuals from a listed pair is nominated separately, the strike with the pair will resolve No. If a strike lists only an individual (e.g., “John Smith”), the strike will resolve Yes if that individual is officially credited as a nominee, whether alone or as part of a credited pair.** The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026.
