Live prediction market odds for Oscars 2026: Best Actor Nominations. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-22
This market resolved on 2026-01-22. Ethan Hawke was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Ethan HawkeWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Leonardo DiCaprio | 99% | 100% |
Michael B. Jordan | 99% | 100% |
Timothée Chalamet | 99% | 100% |
Wagner Moura | 99% | 100% |
Denzel Washington | 5% | 50% |
Willem Dafoe | 2% | 50% |
Brad Pitt | 1% | 50% |
Brendan Fraser | 1% | 50% |
Colin Farrell | 1% | 50% |
Daniel Day-Lewis | 1% | 50% |
Dwayne Johnson | 1% | 50% |
George Clooney | 1% | 50% |
Jeremy Allen White | 1% | 50% |
Jesse Plemons | 1% | 50% |
Joaquin Phoenix | 1% | 50% |
Joel Edgerton | 1% | 50% |
Lee Byung-hun | 1% | 50% |
Matthew McConaughey | 1% | 50% |
Paul Mescal | 1% | 50% |
Oscars 2026: Best Actor Nominations was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Ethan Hawke led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Leonardo DiCaprio at 100%, Michael B. Jordan at 100%, Timothée Chalamet at 100%.
Ethan Hawke held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Ethan Hawke, Leonardo DiCaprio at 100% and Michael B. Jordan at 100% and Timothée Chalamet at 100% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Ethan Hawke: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Leonardo DiCaprio: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Michael B. Jordan: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Timothée Chalamet: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Ethan Hawke would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Ethan Hawke
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Ethan Hawke has been nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026.
