Live prediction market odds for Oscars 2026: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-03-15
Market Summary
In the latest prediction market odds for Oscars 2026: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner, The Perfect Neighbor leads with an average implied probability of 51.0%. Top contenders trailing the frontrunner include Mr. Nobody against Putin (23.5%), Come See Me in the Good Light (16.8%), The Alabama Solution (4.5%), and Cutting through Rocks (3.1%). Traders monitoring this market will find an active arbitrage window with a 2.0% spread across platforms.
Market Narrative // Why the odds are moving
The British Academy Film Awards have nominated documentaries including the Associated Press's Ukraine war portrait '2000 Meters to Andriivka,' highlighting it as a contender in the documentary category which could influence Oscar prospects..
Sources: AP News
Resolution
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The Perfect Neighbor
51.0% avg
