Live prediction market odds for Oscars 2026: Best Original Score Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-03-15
Market Summary
In the latest prediction market odds for Oscars 2026: Best Original Score Winner, Sinners leads with an average implied probability of 92.5%. Top contenders trailing the frontrunner include One Battle after Another (4.5%), Bugonia (1.7%), Hamnet (0.9%), and Frankenstein (0.9%). Traders monitoring this market will find an active arbitrage window with a 1.1% spread across platforms.
Market Narrative // Why the odds are moving
Jonny Greenwood, nominated for the Oscars Best Original Score for 'One Battle After Another,' also received a nomination for Film Score of the Year at the 2026 ASCAP Composers’ Choice Awards, signaling strong industry recognition ahead of the Oscars.. Meanwhile, Billboard reports: ludwig göransson’s score for 'sinners' won the bafta for best original music, a key indicator boosting his chances for the oscars 2026 best original score, as the bafta nominations mirrored oscar score nominees this year..
Sources: Billboard / Billboard
Resolution
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Sinners
92.5% avg
