What was "Oscars 2026: Best Supporting Actress Nominations" and why did it matter?
Oscars 2026: Best Supporting Actress Nominations was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Amy Madigan led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Elle Fanning at 100%, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas at 100%, Teyana Taylor at 100%.
What moved the odds on "Oscars 2026: Best Supporting Actress Nominations"?
Amy Madigan held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Amy Madigan, Elle Fanning at 100% and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas at 100% and Teyana Taylor at 100% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
What were the final odds for "Oscars 2026: Best Supporting Actress Nominations" across platforms?
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Amy Madigan: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Elle Fanning: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Teyana Taylor: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
What did 100% odds for Amy Madigan mean?
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Amy Madigan would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
