Live prediction market odds for PA-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Republican Party leads the “PA-01 House winner” event at 50.5% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 50.0%. A 6.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
PA-01 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 51% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 50%.
Republican Party currently leads at 51% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 50% are the next closest contenders. The 6.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Republican Party: 52¢ on Kalshi, 49¢ on Polymarket. Democratic Party: 53¢ on Kalshi, 47¢ on Polymarket. The 6.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 51¢ means the market estimates a 51% probability that Republican Party will be the outcome. Buying one share at 51¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 96% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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This market resolves based on official announcements from authoritative sources. Prediction Hunt aggregates odds across platforms but does not determine outcomes. Each platform maintains its own resolution criteria — check each platform's rules before trading.
Republican Party
50.5% avg
