Live prediction market odds for PA-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the PA-01 House seat in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest will play a crucial role in determining party control in the House of Representatives, influencing legislative agendas and national policies.
Republican Party leads the “PA-01 House winner” event at 53.5% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 48.3%. A 5.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and voter turnout trends. Polling data and endorsements can also significantly sway market perceptions.
The outcome could shift the balance of power in the House, affecting legislative priorities. A change in control may lead to different approaches on key issues.
The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election, which includes various federal and state races.
PA-01 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 54% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 48%.
Republican Party currently leads at 54% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 48% are the next closest contenders. The 5.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “PA-01 House winner?” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 3K+ Discord community
Republican Party
53.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for PA-1 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
