Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the PA-07 Democratic nominee?

Accepted Answer

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising efforts are key factors that shape the odds. Additionally, local and national political trends can impact voter sentiment.

Question 2

When is the primary election for the PA-07 Democratic nominee?

Accepted Answer

The primary election for the PA-07 Democratic nominee is scheduled for May 19, 2026. This date is critical for determining the party's candidate for the general election.

Question 3

How does the PA-07 race fit into the larger electoral landscape?

Accepted Answer

The PA-07 race is significant as it could affect the balance of power in the House of Representatives. A strong performance by Democrats here may signal broader trends in voter preferences across Pennsylvania.

Question 4

What is "PA-07 Democratic nominee?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

PA-07 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Bob Brooks leads at 90% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Ryan Crosswell at 6%, Lamont McClure at 5%, Carol Obando-Derstine at 5%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "PA-07 Democratic nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

Bob Brooks currently leads at 90% implied probability. Behind Bob Brooks, Ryan Crosswell at 6% and Lamont McClure at 5% and Carol Obando-Derstine at 5% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "PA-07 Democratic nominee?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Bob Brooks: 91¢ on Kalshi, 89¢ on Polymarket. Ryan Crosswell: 6¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. Lamont McClure: 5¢ on Kalshi, 6¢ on Polymarket. Carol Obando-Derstine: 3¢ on Kalshi, 7¢ on Polymarket. The 3.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Bob Brooks is at 90%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 90¢ means the market estimates a 90% probability that Bob Brooks will be the outcome. Buying one share at 90¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 11% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	90.0%	89¢	91¢	9¢	11¢
Polymarket	88.5%	86¢	91¢	9¢	14¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	5.5%	3¢	8¢	92¢	97¢
Polymarket	5.5%	2¢	9¢	91¢	98¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	5.0%	2¢	8¢	92¢	98¢
Polymarket	5.5%	3¢	8¢	92¢	97¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	3.0%	0¢	6¢	94¢	100¢
Polymarket	6.5%	3¢	10¢	90¢	97¢

PA-07 Democratic nominee?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Bob Brooks

About Ryan Crosswell

About Lamont McClure

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: PA-07 Democratic nominee?

About Carol Obando-Derstine