Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the PA-07 Democratic nominee?

Accepted Answer

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising efforts are key factors that shape the odds. Additionally, local and national political trends can impact voter sentiment.

Question 2

When is the primary election for the PA-07 Democratic nominee?

Accepted Answer

The primary election for the PA-07 Democratic nominee is scheduled for May 19, 2026. This date is critical for determining the party's candidate for the general election.

Question 3

How does the PA-07 race fit into the larger electoral landscape?

Accepted Answer

The PA-07 race is significant as it could affect the balance of power in the House of Representatives. A strong performance by Democrats here may signal broader trends in voter preferences across Pennsylvania.

Question 4

What is "PA-07 Democratic nominee?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

PA-07 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Bob Brooks leads at 71% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Ryan Crosswell at 20%, Lamont McClure at 8%, Carol Obando-Derstine at 4%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "PA-07 Democratic nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

Bob Brooks currently leads at 71% implied probability. Behind Bob Brooks, Ryan Crosswell at 20% and Lamont McClure at 8% and Carol Obando-Derstine at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 4.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "PA-07 Democratic nominee?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Bob Brooks: 73¢ on Kalshi, 69¢ on Polymarket. Ryan Crosswell: 21¢ on Kalshi, 20¢ on Polymarket. Lamont McClure: 8¢ on Kalshi, 8¢ on Polymarket. Carol Obando-Derstine: 5¢ on Kalshi, 3¢ on Polymarket. The 4.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Bob Brooks is at 71%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 71¢ means the market estimates a 71% probability that Bob Brooks will be the outcome. Buying one share at 71¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 41% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	72.0%	71¢	73¢	27¢	29¢
Polymarket	69.0%	68¢	70¢	30¢	32¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	22.0%	19¢	25¢	75¢	81¢
Polymarket	19.5%	18¢	21¢	79¢	82¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	6.5%	4¢	9¢	91¢	96¢
Polymarket	8.0%	7¢	9¢	91¢	93¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	3.5%	0¢	7¢	93¢	100¢
Polymarket	3.5%	2¢	5¢	95¢	98¢

PA-07 Democratic nominee?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Bob Brooks

About Ryan Crosswell

About Lamont McClure

About Carol Obando-Derstine

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: PA-07 Democratic nominee?