Live prediction market odds for Pam Bondi out as Attorney General?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-03-31
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the potential departure of Pam Bondi from her role as Attorney General by March 31, 2026. This event is significant as it could impact the political landscape and influence upcoming legislative priorities in the state.
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31 is priced at 25.5% implied probability for the “Pam Bondi out as Attorney General” event. A 49.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors may include political pressure, changes in administration, or personal decisions. Public sentiment and ongoing legal challenges could also play a role.
Prediction markets aggregate opinions and data from various sources, adjusting odds based on new information. As developments unfold, market prices can fluctuate significantly.
Her departure could lead to a shift in policy direction and influence the appointment of her successor. It may also affect the dynamics within the state's political party.
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31 leads at 26% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31 currently leads at 26% implied probability. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Pam Bondi leaves as Attorney General before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pam Bondi must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No." For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Pam Bondi ceases to be the US Attorney General for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Bondi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31
25.5% avg
