About This Market
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the runoff margin of victory for the Paris mayoral election set for March 2026. The outcome will influence local governance and policy direction in one of Europe's major cities, making it a focal point for political analysts and voters alike.
Emmanuel Grégoire, 0-5% leads the “Paris mayor election runoff margin of victory” event at 56.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Rachida Dati wins (25.0%), Emmanuel Grégoire, 5-10% (14.3%), Emmanuel Grégoire, 10-15% (2.2%), and Emmanuel Grégoire, 15-20% (0.7%). A 6.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

