Live prediction market odds for Paris mayor election runoff margin of victory?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-03-22
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the runoff margin of victory for the Paris mayoral election set for March 2026. The outcome will influence local governance and policy direction in one of Europe's major cities, making it a focal point for political analysts and voters alike.
Emmanuel Grégoire 15–20% is priced at 25.5% implied probability for the “Paris mayor election runoff margin of victory” event. A 49.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The runoff determines the final mayor of Paris, impacting local policies and governance. It reflects the political climate and voter priorities in the city.
A larger margin may indicate strong public support for the winning candidate, potentially influencing their party's strategy in future elections. It can also affect voter turnout and engagement.
Key factors include voter turnout, campaign strategies, and public sentiment leading up to the election. Polling data and endorsements may also play a crucial role.
Paris mayor election runoff margin of victory is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Emmanuel Grégoire 15–20% leads at 26% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Emmanuel Grégoire 15–20% currently leads at 26% implied probability. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Emmanuel Grégoire 15–20%
25.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the margin of victory for Emmanuel Grégoire in the 2026 Paris mayoral runoff falls between 15% and 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Emmanuel Grégoire minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Emmanuel Grégoire if Emmanuel Grégoire wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Emmanuel Grégoire loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Emmanuel Grégoire minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Emmanuel Grégoire if Emmanuel Grégoire wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Emmanuel Grégoire loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Emmanuel Grégoire minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Emmanuel Grégoire wins, or the electoral votes received by Emmanuel Grégoire minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Emmanuel Grégoire does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Emmanuel Grégoire runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Emmanuel Grégoire will be summed. If Emmanuel Grégoire wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Emmanuel Grégoire loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Emmanuel Grégoire ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Emmanuel Grégoire is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
