Live prediction market odds for Paris Mayoral Election. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-03-15
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Paris Mayoral Election set for March 15, 2026. This election will determine the leadership of one of Europe's major cities, influencing local policies and governance amid ongoing social and economic challenges.
David Belliard is priced at 25.3% implied probability for the “Paris Mayoral Election” event. A 49.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The Paris Mayoral Election is crucial for shaping the city's policies on issues like housing, transportation, and climate change. The elected mayor will have a significant impact on local governance and public services.
Prediction markets provide real-time insights into the likelihood of various candidates winning the election. As new information emerges, such as polling data and candidate announcements, odds can fluctuate significantly.
Factors influencing the odds include candidate popularity, public opinion polls, and current events affecting voter sentiment. Additionally, endorsements and campaign strategies play a vital role in shaping market perceptions.
Paris Mayoral Election is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). David Belliard leads at 25% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
David Belliard currently leads at 25% implied probability. The 49.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf David Belliard wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
<p>The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.</p>
PolymarketThe 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
David Belliard
25.3% avg
