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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 70.5% // +$7050.00

Live prediction market odds for Peru Presidential Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

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Kalshi / Polymarket / Predict.fun

Peru Presidential Election Winner

2026-04-12

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the outcome of the Peru Presidential Election scheduled for April 12, 2026. This election will determine the country's leadership amid ongoing economic challenges and social unrest, making it a pivotal moment for Peru's future direction.

Keiko Fujimori leads the “Peru Presidential Election Winner” event at 47.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Roberto Sánchez Palomino (19.8%), and Rafael López Aliaga (1.1%). A 70.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
KF
Keiko FujimoriARB
59% Avg
Kalshi70¢
Polymarket72¢
Predict.fun73¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
69.5%69¢70¢30¢31¢
PolymarketPolymarket
71.5%71¢72¢28¢29¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
37.0%1¢73¢27¢100¢
RS
Roberto Sánchez PalominoARB
25% Avg
Kalshi31¢
Polymarket29¢
Predict.fun30¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
30.5%30¢31¢69¢70¢
PolymarketPolymarket
29.0%29¢29¢71¢71¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
15.0%0¢30¢70¢100¢
RL
Rafael López Aliaga
1% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%1¢1¢99¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%1¢1¢99¢99¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Keiko Fujimori

Keiko Fujimori is the leader of Peru's Popular Force party and a candidate in the 2026 presidential election. She previously served as First Lady from 1994 to 2000 and was a congresswoman from 2006 to 2011. Her candidacy is significant due to her family's political legacy and her previous presidential bids.

About Roberto Sánchez Palomino

Roberto Sánchez Palomino es congresista de la República por Juntos por el Perú. Anteriormente, fue ministro de Comercio Exterior y Turismo en el gobierno de Pedro Castillo. Es candidato presidencial en las elecciones de 2026, postulando con el mismo partido político.

About Rafael López Aliaga

Rafael López Aliaga is the leader of Peru's Popular Renewal party and a candidate in the 2026 presidential election. He served as Mayor of Lima from 2023 to 2025 before resigning to run for president. His conservative platform and business background make him a significant contender in the upcoming election.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the 2026 Peru Presidential Election?

The election is crucial for shaping Peru's political landscape and addressing pressing economic issues. Voter sentiment will be influenced by candidates' positions on key policies and social reforms.

How do prediction markets work for this election?

Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the likelihood of various candidates winning. Prices fluctuate based on public opinion, news events, and campaign developments.

What factors could impact the election outcome?

Factors include economic performance, public opinion on candidates, and any potential social unrest leading up to the election. Additionally, voter turnout will play a critical role in determining the winner.

What is "Peru Presidential Election Winner" and why does it matter?

Peru Presidential Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun). Keiko Fujimori leads at 47% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Roberto Sánchez Palomino at 30%, Rafael López Aliaga at 1%.

What is moving the odds on "Peru Presidential Election Winner"?

Keiko Fujimori currently leads at 47% implied probability. Behind Keiko Fujimori, Roberto Sánchez Palomino at 30% and Rafael López Aliaga at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 70.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread70.5%
Platforms3
Candidates3

Market Rulebook: Peru Presidential Election Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the winner of the next Peruvian presidential election scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is Rafael López Aliaga, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a presidential election, the winner is the candidate who is officially declared elected by that authority and is subsequently sworn in, or whose inauguration date passes without a different person taking office. The market will resolve for that candidate even if they die or are incapacitated after the election but before taking office. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

{'description': 'General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).\n\nCreated At: 2026-03-02T13:19:39.471536122Z'}

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Leader

Keiko Fujimori

47.0% avg