Question 1

What was "Portugal Presidential Election: 1st Round Winner" and why did it matter?

Accepted Answer

Portugal Presidential Election: 1st Round Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). António José Seguro (IND) led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution.

Question 2

What moved the odds on "Portugal Presidential Election: 1st Round Winner"?

Accepted Answer

António José Seguro (IND) held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.

Question 3

What were the final odds for "Portugal Presidential Election: 1st Round Winner" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: António José Seguro (IND): 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.

Question 4

What did 100% odds for António José Seguro (IND) mean?

Accepted Answer

A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that António José Seguro (IND) would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.

António José Seguro (IND) Wins: Portugal Presidential Election: 1st Round Winner

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Market Rulebook: Portugal Presidential Election: 1st Round Winner